Muhammad Farouk

Realistic Deactivation of SAARC

India and Pakistan are the toughest founding components of SAARC and regrettably mutually neighboring rows never cemented any significant success for regional cooperation body in spite of deep rooted potentials to grow on socio-economic fronts. The scale of bilateral disputes between two nuclear capable countries is major hurdle in flourishing the role, although scope of regional cooperation is being expanded by giving representation to some new neighbouring states of various capacities. SAARC head of states conference always held with expectations but concludes without any positive outcome. Now terrible stage has reached that powerful media from sub continent mostly have no importance for such regional congregation in which sideline meeting of indo Pak premiers are the permanent feature for a smiling photo sessions. Both the countries are robustly bounded by high level of mistrust. So far, the fate of SAARC can be defined as the hostage to India and Pakistan for their multi prong disputes depleting regional cooperation organization to an inactive club of states without any prosperous delivery to strengthening body for regional uplift. In near future; there is no sigma of change of status quo for SAARC.

Dimension of disagreement have also created ruckus for other smaller countries eager to get benefits for their economies and sociologies but all is vain. There are also anecdotes that other member states of SAARC are showing discontent over the mutual rivalry of India and Pakistan and they have plans to establish some new regional cooperation or join some other bodies without the confronting states so other states may enjoy benefits of regional integration. Due to the gravity of indo Pakistan reservations towards each other, Pakistan is also seeking to join Shanghi group an emerging regional cooperation for economic gains with strong support of China. Although in SAARC, China has been given a status of observer but in future India and China may take a longer period to get rid the traditional opposition to emerge as regional power. China has own policy to built a block to get major benefits without engaging into a war while India has also sufficient support from USA and other International blocks to ensure its leading position which ultimately lead china and India towards altercation rather that close associate partners in building a strong and prosperous region. United States and other Western powers are helpful to India as they are not ready to allow China to become a powerful pillar in international power game through initiation domination in the region. Assistance towards India on economic, nuclear and social fronts is mere indication to discourage any such influence by China which can harm the interests of world powers and its allies in future arrangements. Afghanistan has also been inducted to SAARC; it is primarily a security orientation for the region as world key power players’ presence has strong ambitions to stop the development of China as major challenger against America and allies. Such developments in various dimensions are not compassionate for SAARC future. Security dilemma in Afghanistan is small portrait of confrontation between major power players of the world. America has shown profound frustration towards the shaky cooperation of Pakistan to ensure its action against Taliban groups operating from Pakistani soil. Karazai administration has facilitated India enormously to establish solid roots in defense as well as development sector. It is obvious that mutual disputes of India Pakistan and India China will have a significant importance in defining the future of SAARC. In emerging situation, SAARC will lose its role gradually due to charisma of powerful players like China and India to lead the region. It will ultimately deprive the smaller states from ingredients of partnership and cooperation. If SAARC failed due to India and Pakistan; can it achieve something with induction of China facing critical opposition from key international players? Afghanistan can better be define the future of SAARC which will engage too many components jointly working for socio economic gains but net result will be initiation of new rows primarily for domination. Pakistan role will be important as usual for its strong links with China but can’t ignore relationship with India. Although Pakistan is in process to identify India as Most Favorite Nation (MFN) for commerce but in due course of implementation, practical results will be limited. Pakistan can again be a bridge but eventually a hub of future hostilities for economic gains, it will create potentials and threats severely hamper its role at mercy of others. China and India will set the future either to join hands to ensure economic and socio development or confront to raise new issues locally resulting a destabilized region with the tilt of smaller states towards a new block to ensure growth. If the security defines the equilibrium in region, economics and social development through SAARC will ever be dream and it will diminish the role of regional bodies merging to new originations. In reality, all member states must take into consideration the impact of bilateral conflicts, India-Pakistan or India-China will set the equation of any regional partnership. Conflicts have paid yet nothing to work SAARC to its potentials. So inclusion of China will add new dimensions of confrontation as international power players like US and West will surely enter to ensure their interests either through a support to India to hurdle China. In wake of regional development, SAARC role will diminish without paying any assistance to regional in particularly for smaller states. It will usher a new era in which new regional mechanism will define future. Reality will reveal the deactivation of SAARC with passage of time and emergence of new block on new paradigms. Currently, SAARC is losing its position but regional cooperation always a potential for member states, a strong system for regional cooperation will always be a prerequisite with practical objectivity rather making the organization a hostage to confronting states.

Writer is Islamabad based Research Analyst on Security, Media and Democracy. www.muhammadfarouk.com , farouk333@gmail.com