Expectations always initiate the minutes of SAARC conferences but conclusion never draws even a headline in powerful media of the day in sub continent. This is the fate of regional body for over the years that it has become a hostage organization to the bilateral disputes of nuclear capable India and Pakistan. Induction to China and Afghanistanis orientation of security, subject to SAARC which can be a potential but more than a threat as regional hegemony will be the goal of new game backed by some key international players. Regional partnership may lead to a new phase of regional cold war era in whichIndiaandChinawill be keen contenders while other smaller states will again be confused, fruitless and at a loss, they will finally see towards other regional blocks to ensure some gains to survive but regional body SAARC will not deliver even to expectations.
IndiaandPakistanhave history of bilateral disputes. There is no ray of hope for the return of trust and pleasantry in mutual terms as powerful establishments in respective countries can’t afford to withdraw traditional stances and ensure flexibility to normalize for peace. Leadership fromIndiaandPakistancan hold series of talks but prospects are always minimal. India and Pakistan row over Kashmir has historical prospective and for an independent observer, both countries have done blunders of violations to prove their fake claims over a territory while people of Kashmir have never been asked to use their right to decide future and fate. Kashmir war led to the creation ofBangladeshwhere Indian forces supported the freedom movement of Bengli people againstIslamabad.Bangladeshcame into existence due to internal failure of Pakistani politicians and military brass to disregard the opinion of people and at same time, militant revolt was backed byIndiawhich resulted in the surrender of Pakistani army before Indian armed forces and people ofBengal.Bangladeshfreedom movement is regarded as freedom victory but it left incurable gashes forIndiaandPakistan. There is long list of disputes between neighboring nuclear states ranges from Kashmir toInduswater treaty and Siachan to Surcreek. From ice of Glaciers to sand of deserts, Pakistan and India are not in normal terms and bitterness of blunders by both states in past still not driven towards sensibility and building a foundation to negotiate for normalcy. It is in fact the dilemma of sub continent and future of SAARC surely desire to get rid disagreements to reasonable mechanism to convince hawks in both countries for peace. It is not easy task to address challenges on short terms but in long run any such act of extremism stille have the capacity to derail the whole peace process, since level of mistrust is huge and equally both establishments so far have not any urge and courage to develop interaction to minimize the affects of any terror act by non state actors. For actions against non state actors, international community have always put huge pressures on Pakistan but incidents have clear clues that Indian non state actors are equally responsible but most of the times , it was ignored to settle. It simply put unilateral pressure onPakistanwhich makes the situation more adverse and Pak establishment try to convert strategies towards new dimensions to ease the undue burden. Both establishments are key player of excessive games with in a big game plan which had no remedy for people of sub continent.
Chinais also given the observer status in SAARC which has introduced a new aspect for SAARC.Chinais active member of Shanghi group another emerging strong regional cooperation in whichPakistanis also seeking an entry for benefits at regional level. In such scenario, PakChinaties are an open secret and both can’t afford to work separately in any a situation at any platform. SinceChinais emerging power also facing huge hurdles fromUSAand allies from the West.Indiais being promoted by US and Western countries to stop the progress ofChina. In next phase of confrontation,ChinaandIndiawill be eye ball to eye ball for economic gains as future war will be fought on economic fronts rather a military standoff. IfIndiacan’t afford a war withPakistan, it is out of question to stopChinawith western and made inAmericamilitary weapons. In future blocks,Russiawill protect its interests in region with Sino partnership. WhileIndiawill make its moves with strong support from US, in sidelines of new strategies to gain hegemony on economic front, potential will enhance but threats will open new panoramas of conflicts and confrontations which will pay nothing to region and SAARC. AlthoughPakistanis interested in Shanghi group to useChinainfluence to balance its relation withAmericaandIndiainAfghanistan, but Shanghi cooperation is yet not in position to backPakistanasChinaandRussiahave joint interests inAfghanistanalong with strong foothold ofIndia. So in new equation of regional partnership, confrontation will rise with new dimensions overshadow by the security situation ofAfghanistanwar, in fact it will overcastAfghanistanscene with its economic horizons on SAARC whereIndiaandChinawill usher a new race through a game to gain support from regional as well as international power politics and economic players.
In an exemplary case, SAARC can better be defined by theAfghanistanas a simplest portrait for future of regional body. Inclusion ofChinaand confrontation between India Pakistan, India China disputes and urge to lead the region with overlapping the interests of other key power players, member states may shift towards new regional blocks but will not gain any results from SAARC. In past SAARC failed to deliver for major reasons of indo Pak conflicts, now emerging China India row to hegemonies region backed by US and West will forecast same bitter and barren SAARC of past. It is unfortunate for SAARC region that complexity of issues will again fail in the delivery of fruits of regional partnership. If past of SAARC was without any positive and constructive actions, future will again be in doldrums. In age of striving for security, SAARC mechanism towards socio economic development will be unsuccessful severely; all three leading statesChina,IndiaandPakistanmust settle or freeze complex bilateral disputes in the interests of regional cooperation but not for the regional domination. In presence of thirst to dominate the region and ill will to diminish issues, SAARC will not be able to deliver as a strong regional body. A desire and dream associated to build the SAARC for socio Economic development to diversify benefits for smaller countries will never be fulfilled. Only a strong system to settle bilateral disputes can raise the horizon of SAARC to have a bright workable future in contrast to stationary past. China India andPakistanmust take respective tasks to minimize challenges gripping the regions from internal and external factors to hurdle the development of region.
Muhammad Farouk is Islamabadbased Research Analyst on Security, Media and Democracy. www.muhammadfarouk.com , Email: farouk333@gmail.com
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